Kalshi is a federally regulated prediction market platform that enables users to trade on the outcomes of various real-world events, including political elections. Established in 2020, Kalshi operates under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), providing a legal and transparent platform for event-based trading in the United States.

How Election Betting Works on Kalshi

On Kalshi, users can participate in markets by purchasing event contracts that represent the probability of specific election outcomes. These contracts operate on a straightforward principle: if the event occurs as predicted, the contract pays out $1; if not, it yields $0. For example, a contract might ask, “Will Candidate A win the Presidential Election?” Users can buy “Yes” or “No” positions, with prices reflecting the market’s consensus on the likelihood of that outcome.

Regulatory Developments and Challenges

In June 2023, Kalshi self-certified its congressional control markets, allowing users to trade on which political party would control the U.S. House of Representatives or Senate on a specific future date. However, the CFTC commenced a formal review of these markets, expressing concerns about their potential impact on election integrity. This led to a temporary freeze order in September 2024, halting Kalshi’s election betting operations.

Despite these challenges, Kalshi has made efforts to comply with regulatory requirements. In January 2025, the CFTC issued a supplemental no-action letter to Kalshi, providing regulatory relief for certain operational aspects of its platform. However, the legal landscape remains complex, with ongoing debates about the impact of election betting on democratic processes.

State-Level Regulatory Actions

In March 2025, the Nevada Gaming Control Board (NGCB) issued a cease-and-desist order to Kalshi, declaring that its event-based contracts on sports and election outcomes are unlawful in Nevada unless approved as licensed gaming. The NGCB emphasized that any attempts to circumvent Nevada’s gaming regulations would be met with criminal and civil penalties.

User Experience on Kalshi

Engaging with election markets on Kalshi is user-friendly:

1. Account Creation: Users begin by registering on the Kalshi platform, providing necessary identification and payment information.

2. Market Exploration: After logging in, users can browse available election markets, such as “Will Candidate A win the Presidential Election?”

3. Trading Contracts: Users select a market and choose to buy contracts based on their predictions. For instance, if a user believes Candidate A will win, they might purchase “Yes” contracts for that outcome.

4. Monitoring and Settlement: Once the election concludes, Kalshi settles the contracts based on the actual outcome, crediting users with correct predictions.

Conclusion – Election Betting on Kalshi

Kalshi represents an innovative approach to event prediction, blending elements of trading and betting within a federally regulated framework. While it offers opportunities to speculate on election outcomes, users should be mindful of the evolving regulatory environment and understand the distinctions between traditional betting and event trading on platforms like Kalshi. As with any form of speculation, it’s essential to approach with caution, stay informed about legal considerations, and engage responsibly.