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Week 9 begins with a rather uneventful game as the New York Jets head to Indianapolis to face the Colts in Thursday Night’s prime time slot.  The Jets are coming off a crazy win over the Bengals while the Colts look to bounce back after a tough loss to the Tennessee Titans.  Against the spread, the Colts have a 5-3 record which is 6th overall in the league.  The Jets are 2-5 against the spread this season ranking 29th in the league and both wins coming as upset wins.  The spread for tonight’s game is set at 10.5 which would be the second-largest spread for the Colts.  The only one larger was -11.5 to the Houston Texans.  That said, it is interesting to see how the public has been betting on this game.  All of the stats and my pick are below.

 

The Insights

Spread:

•34% of the public have wagered 42% of the money on the Jets +10.5.  There has been no line movement.

•66% of the public have wagered 58% of the money on the Colts -10.5.  There has been no line movement.

Over/Under:

•58% of the public have wagered 70% of the money on the over.  The line has moved from 46.5 points to 45.5 points.

•42% of the public have wagered 30% of the money on the under.  The line has mvoed from 46.5 points to 45.5 points.

Moneyline:

•The Jets opened at +425.  68% of the public have wagered 45% of the money on the Jets.  The line has not moved.

•The Colts opened at -600.  32% of the public have wagered 55% of the money on the Colts.  The line has dropped to -550.

 

What I’m Betting

All of the line movement is pretty uneventful outside of the over/under.  The over is getting 7/10ths of the money yet the line is dropping.  The public percentage isn’t large enough to say that reverse line movement is happening, but it is still very noticeable.  That and the fact that the under is 6-2 this season during Thursday Night Football.  The only games that have hit the over were in weeks 1 and 2 as the Buccs/Cowboys and Giants/WFT were able to hit the over with ease.  That is why I am going to bet the under 46.5.  You can get it currently at -125 odds, which is a solid pay return considering you’re able to see the current line movement.

 

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