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Week 9 was a weekend of underdogs.  The Falcons beat the Saints, The Broncos whooped on the Cowboys, The Browns beat the Bengals, and the Jaguars got their first win over the Bills of all teams. Up was down and down was up in a lot of these matchups.  The moral of the story is the league has more parody in competition than the media likes to admit.  I think that continues tonight.  The insights below show the public percentage and money percentage on the spread, moneyline, and total.

 

The Insights

• Bears Spread opened at +6.5. 46% of the public wagered 44% of the money on the Bears.  The line is now Bears +7.

• Steelers Spread opened at -6.5.  54% of the public wagered 56% of the money on the Steelers.  The line is now Steelers -7.

• The over opened at 40 points.  46% of the public wagered 33% of the money on the over.  the line is now at 39.5 points.

• The under opened at 40 points.  54% of the public wagered 67% of the money on the under.  The line is now at 39.5 points.

• The Bears opened at +225 on the moneyline.  66% of the public wagered 47% of the money on the Bears.  The line is now +250.

• The Steelers opened at -275 on the moneyline.  34% of the public wagered 53% of the money on the Steelers.  The line is now -300.

• MNF Overs are 4-4 on the season.

• Steelers are 1-5-1 on the Over.

• Bears are 2-6 on the Over.

• Steelers lowest under covered was 42.5 points

• Bears lowest under covered was 41.5 points

• Steelers average 18.9 points per game.

• Bears average 15.4 points per game.

 

What I’m Seeing

On the spread, it appears the public is pretty evenly split, but those who are betting the Steelers are doing so with more money than Bears’ bettors are spending.  That would make the half-point movement make sense.  That half-point still gives Steelers bettors value.  Instead of winning by 7, they now have to win by 8 but at least have the cushion of pushing at 7 points.  The same applies to the under, except now you’ve lost the cushion.  The public has moved the line a half point that now forces a win or loss.  The value in the under has dropped considerably in my opinion because of that.  39 points is not a lot, even for a prime-time game.  If you see in the stats, neither team has covered an under that low.  They do however average less than 39 points per game combined.

 

I think the best bet to play tonight is the under 40 points at the higher odds.  Depending on the book, you can still get 40 points at -110.  I expect the game to have a slow start and there to be garbage points at the end.  I would avoid live betting the under.  Anything under 39.5 feels like a trap.

 

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