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Week 7 already? This season is flying by as Week 7 approaches giving us two injured teams facing off in this Thursday’s Prime Time TV slot.  The Broncos take on the Browns in Cleveland in a game that won’t feature any name you think of when talking about the Cleveland Browns.  Quite literally every offensive player is injured.  No Baker, OBJ, Jarvis, Chubb, or any of their other stars.  The Broncos may or may not have Teddy Bridgewater at QB which heavily dictates the strength of their offense.  The lines have moved wildly since the injury announcements. I’ll get into the betting insights below, as well as tell you who I am betting this Thursday night.

 

Betting Insights

•60% of the public have bet the Broncos on the spread.  That 60% bet 58% of the total money on the Broncos.  This has moved the line from +5.5 to +2.  You will even see +1.5 on some books.

•69% of the public is on the under.  That 69% bet 92% of the money on the under.  The line has moved from 43.5 to 41.5

•80& of the public bet the Broncos on the moneyline.  They bet 78% of the total money.  The line has moved from +190 to +110

 

What They Mean

The line movement has been drastic this week and that is mostly due to the injury reports.  The Browns have none of their starters and the public is heavily betting the Broncos because of that.  They are also heavily betting the under.  I personally like the under bet better as the Broncos might not have their starting QB, Teddy Bridgewater.  His absence limits the Broncos’ offense drastically.  All of this is why you see the line drop 3 points in the Broncos’ favor and the under drop 2 points.

 

What I Am Betting

I will be teasing the under up to 42.5 and paying the -135 price tag.  I’d love to get up to 43.5 but the price is too steep.  I also think that the line moving to 41.5 is telling.  I am not expecting a lot of offense, but getting to 41 points doesn’t take much.  I also weirdly like the Browns at -2.  If Teddy isn’t playing for Denver, their offense is useless.

 

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