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Home » Week 4 TNF: Jaguars vs Bengals

Monday was tough as the Cowboys from the very jump never gave the Eagles a chance to win.  The Eagles didn’t do themselves any favors with multiple interceptions in inopportune moments.  Similar to Jalen Hurts, we gotta flush it and move on and Thursday’s game is a perfect opportunity to do so.  The Jacksonville Jaguars go to Cincinnati to face the Bengals in a Thursday night showdown that few expect much from.  Below are the betting insights on the game, what they mean, and what I am betting to win back that cash lost on the Eagles.

 

The Insights

•The Cincinnati Bengals are 2-1-0 on the season. The Bengals beat the Vikings to start the season, lost the Bears in Week 2, then bounced back to beat the Steelers in Week 3.

•The Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-3-0 on the season.  The Jaguars lost to the Texans, Broncos, and Cardinals in that order.

•On the spread, 67% of the public bet the Bengals.  63% of the total money wagered on the spread is on the Bengals.  The line movement has been in the Bengals favor with the spread opening at -6 and currently at -7.5.

•On the Total, 61% of the public is on the over.  66% of the total money wagered is on the over.  The over/under opened at 47 and currently is at 45.5 points.

•On the Moneyline, 50% of the public is on the Bengals.  72% of the total money wagered is on the Bengals.  The Moneyline opened at -250 for the Bengals and has moved to -350.

 

What The Insights Say

On the spread, the line movement makes sense.  2 out of every 3 bets are on the Bengals and the money is almost exactly the same.  Vegas moving the line 1.5 points to -7.5 matches where the money is going.  To me, Vegas appears to be trying to entice bettors on the Jaguars.

The over/under immediately jumped out to me.  With 61% of the public and 66% of the money on the over, the line has moved 1.5 points.  Once again reverse line movement reveals itself in the over.  Last Thursday, the Panthers game had reverse line movement on the over and the under hit with ease.

The Moneyline activity, to me, makes sense.  It mirrors the direction the spread is going with a reasonable amount of the public on the Bengals.

 

What I Am Betting

Another Thursday with reverse line movement on the over/under.  The line this week has moved a point more than last week.  The more movement, the more confident I am on following it.  When 2 out of every $3 is bet on the over and Vegas drops the line 1.5 points, to me, that’s clearly a trap.  That is why I am betting the Under 46 at -115 odds.  I teased the line 0.5 points to land on an even number.  The hook, aka the half point, always worries me so when I can tease the line and not may much for it, I will.

I also am betting the Bengals -7 on the spread at -130.  I also teased this line half a point to avoid the hook.

 

Those are the insights and my picks for Week 4’s Thursday Night Football Game. I am betting my action with DraftKings for tonight’s game.  They have a first deposit bonus up to $1,000 and I am looking to place all of it on the Under. To get your deposit bonus from DraftKings, click the link below!

 

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