• NFL teams that have won their last four games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 62-15 SU and 50-25-2 ATS (66.7%) in the next game when favored.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER ❌ (-9.5 vs LVR)

• NFL teams coming off a game with a -5 turnover differential or worse and then having to play away from home have gone just 4-18 SU and 3-19 ATS (13.6%) in their last 22 tries.
System Match (FADE): INDIANAPOLIS ✅ (-6.5 vs ATL)

• Play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 56-25-1 ATS since 2013, 69.1%, +28.5 Units, 35.2% ROI, Grade 70)
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS ✅ (+5.5 at CAR)

• Play on road favorites coming out of their bye week. (Record: 117-47 SU and 96-64-4 ATS since 1999, 60%, +25.6 Units, 16% ROI, Grade 63)
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND ❌ (-2.5 at NYJ)

• DETROIT is on a 12-0 SU and ATS streak coming off an outright loss
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT ✅ (-8.5 at WAS)

• LA Rams: 10-4 SU and 13-1 ATS in the last 14 road rematch situations
Trend Match (PLAY): LA RAMS ✅ (-4.5 at SF)

• The STEELERS have been solid versus the Chargers historically, going 13-6 SU and 14-5 ATS in head-to-head meetings since 1992
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH ❌ (+3 at LAC)

• Teams that scored 45 or more points in their prior game have gone 22-15 SU but 11-26 ATS (29.7%) when favored at HOME by 3 or more points since 2012.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO ✅ (-4.5 vs NYG)

• NFL teams coming off a game in which they turned the ball over five times or more have continued to flounder, going 19-15 SU but 11-22-1 ATS (33.3%) when favored in the next contest since 2012.
System Match (FADE): INDIANAPOLIS ✅ (-6.5 vs ATL)

• NFL teams that have won their last three games ATS with a point margin of +10 or less in that stretch have gone just 17-46 SU and 18-41-4 ATS (30.5%) in game #4 since 2003.
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA ✅ (+6.5 at SEA)

• NFL teams playing at HOME on Thursdays after winning at least their last four games outright have kept the momentum going with a 16-1 SU and 12-4-1 ATS (75%) record in their L17 tries.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER ❌ (-9.5 vs LVR)

• After wins, rookie coaches have done measurably worse in that same time frame, 48-74-6 ATS (39.3%) in their last 128.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO ✅, NY JETS ❌, JACKSONVILLE ✅

• Since 2022, rookie QBs are 21-18 SU and 23-13-3 ATS (63.9%) versus non-conference foes.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA ❌

TNF

• TNF home teams in weeks 9 and later are 44-28 SU and 42-27-3 ATS (60.9%).
System Match (PLAY): DENVER ❌ (-9.5 vs LVR)

• NFL HOME Favorites of 7 points or more are on a 32-3 SU and 21-12-2 ATS (63.6%) run on Thursday games since the start of the 2014 season.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER ❌ (-9.5 vs LVR)

• TNF road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday have rebounded incredibly with a 21-23 SU and 27-16-1 ATS (62.8%) record.
System Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS ✅ (+9.5 at DEN)

SNF

• Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have historically been solid, going 59-40-2 ATS (59.6%) in their last 101.
System Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS ✅ (-3 vs PIT)

• Home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 16-24-1 SU and 17-23-1 ATS (42.5%) in their last 41, but those coming off a win are on a current 28-10 SU and 22-16 ATS (57.9%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS ✅ (-3 vs PIT)

• LA Chargers 4-6 ATS skid in SNF Games.
Trend Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS ❌ (-3 vs PIT)

MNF

• In non-divisional conference matchups on MNF, hosts are on a 23-22 SU and 27-18 ATS (60%) surge since 2019.
System Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-2.5 vs PHI)

• Teams in MNF matchups with the better record are 46-41 SU but just 33-52-2 ATS (38.8%) in the last 87 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match (FADE): GREEN BAY (-2.5 vs PHI)

• Green Bay 10-3 SU in the last 13, 5-2 ATS in the last seven MNF Games.
Trend Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-2.5 vs PHI)

• Philadelphia 12-3-1 UNDER in the last 16 MNF Games.
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-GB (o/u at 45.5)

LAS VEGAS at DENVER

• Favorites have covered three straight ATS in the LVR-DEN divisional rivalry
• LAS VEGAS is 37-51 ATS (42%) when coming off a SU loss since 2015
• LAS VEGAS is 25-18 ATS (58.1%) vs. divisional opponents since 2018
• LAS VEGAS is 37-53 ATS (41.1%) in road/neutral games since 2015
• DENVER is 26-37 ATS (41.3%) as a favorite since 2017
• DENVER is 104-70 UNDER the total (59.8%) since 2015
• LAS VEGAS is 30-8 OVER the total vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2013
• LAS VEGAS is 22-5 UNDER the total as a divisional road underdog since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-9.5 vs LVR)

ATLANTA at INDIANAPOLIS

• Favorites are 6-1 SU and ATS in the ATL-IND series since 2001
• ATLANTA is on a 12-22 SU and 9-25 ATS skid on normal rest (seven days)
• ATLANTA is 17-35 ATS (32.7%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
• INDIANAPOLIS is 25-20 ATS (55.6%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
• INDIANAPOLIS’s Shane Steichen is on a 15-3 SU and 14-4 ATS run vs. poor offensive teams scoring <19 PPG
• INDIANAPOLIS’s Daniel Jones is 16-18 SU and 21-14 ATS with his team coming off an outright loss since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (-6.5 vs ATL)

CLEVELAND at NY JETS

• Favorites are 11-2 ATS in the CLE-NYJ set since 2004, although just 1-2 ATS since 2020
• CLEVELAND’s Kevin Stefanski is 17-9 UNDER the total vs. teams with a losing record since 2020
• CLEVELAND is 20-32 ATS (38.5%) as a favorite since 2017
• NY JETS are 11-27 ATS (28.9%) when coming off a SU win since 2017
• NY JETS’ Justin Fields is 12-31 SU and 17-24-2 ATS (41.5%) in Sunday games. The average line was +3.2, Team average PF: 19.7
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-2.5 at NYJ)

NEW ORLEANS at CAROLINA

• Home teams are 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in the NO-CAR divisional series in the last four seasons
• NEW ORLEANS is 37-26 ATS (58.7%) in road/neutral games since 2018
• CAROLINA is 9-18 SU and 8-19 ATS vs. poor teams with winning percentages <=33% since 2017
• CAROLINA is 21-30 ATS (41.2%) at home since 2019
• CAROLINA is 16-33 ATS (32.7%) as a favorite since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): CAROLINA (-5.5 vs NO)

BUFFALO at MIAMI

• Road teams are 6-1 ATS in the BUF-MIA AFC East rivalry
• BUFFALO’s Josh Allen is 36-22 UNDER the total on the road since 2018
• BUFFALO is 32-25 ATS (56.1%) in road/neutral games since 2019
• MIAMI is 62-33 ATS (65.3%) at home since 2014
• MIAMI is 38-24 ATS (61.3%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
• MIAMI’s Mike McDaniel is on a 3-16 SU and 5-14 ATS skid as a single-digit underdog
• MIAMI’s Tua Tagovailoa is 1-12 SU and 4-9 ATS in his last 13 starts versus teams with winning records
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-9.5 at MIA)

JACKSONVILLE at HOUSTON

• Under the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the Jaguars-Texans divisional set at NRG Stadium
• JACKSONVILLE is 43-34 UNDER the total (55.8%) since 2021
• HOUSTON’s DeMeco Ryans is on a 12-1 UNDER the total streak as a home favorite
• HOUSTON’s DeMeco Ryans is on 16-6 UNDER the total surge vs. teams with a winning record
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): JAX-HOU (o/u at 37.5)

BALTIMORE at MINNESOTA

• Over the total is 5-0 in the BAL-MIN series since 2005
• BALTIMORE is 45-25 ATS (64.3%) in road/neutral games since 2017
• MINNESOTA is 32-19 SU and 33-16 ATS versus AFC opponents since 2014
• MINNESOTA boasts an impressive 83-58 SU and 89-51-1 ATS record when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2011
• MINNESOTA is 19-26 ATS (42.2%) at home since 2020
• MINNESOTA is 64-47 OVER the total (57.7%) since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BAL-MIN (o/u at 49.5)

NEW ENGLAND at TAMPA BAY

• Under the total is 5-0 and NEW ENGLAND is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings with TAMPA BAY
• NEW ENGLAND is 18-27-2 ATS (40%) as an underdog since 2021
• NEW ENGLAND is 31-6 SU and 28-9 ATS when riding a 3-game or more outright winning streak since 2016
• TAMPA BAY’s Todd Bowles is just 6-13 SU and 5-13 ATS when his team plays with extra rest (>7 days) since 2017
• TAMPA BAY’s Baker Mayfield is 15-9 SU but 7-17 ATS as a home favorite since 2020
• TAMPA BAY is 39-53 ATS (42.4%) at home since 2014
• TAMPA BAY’s Todd Bowles is 13-6 OVER the total vs. teams with a better record since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (+3 at TB)

NY GIANTS at CHICAGO

• Under the total has converted in all four matchups between NYG and CHI since 2019
• NY GIANTS are 59-33 UNDER the total (64.1%) since 2020
• NY GIANTS’ Brian Daboll is on 23-13 UNDER the total surge as single-digit underdog
• CHICAGO is 23-13 SU and 23-12 ATS vs. poor defenses allowing >=27 PPG since 2015
• CHICAGO is 34-43 ATS (44.2%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYG-CHI (o/u at 47.5)

ARIZONA at SEATTLE

• SEATTLE is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS versus divisional foe ARIZONA since 2022
• ARIZONA is 13-20 ATS (39.4%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020
• ARIZONA is 34-22 ATS (60.7%) in road/neutral games since 2019
• ARIZONA is 34-19 ATS (64.2%) as an underdog since 2021
• ARIZONA’s Jonathan Gannon is on an 8-3 OVER the total streak vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7%
• SEATTLE’s Sam Darnold is 27-13 UNDER the total when his team plays with normal rest (7 days) since 2019
• SEATTLE’s Sam Darnold is 10-11 SU and 7-13-1 ATS in the last 21 starts vs. teams with losing records
• SEATTLE is 44-53-1 ATS (45.4%) when coming off a SU win since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-6.5 vs ARI)

DETROIT at WASHINGTON

• Underdogs are 4-1 SU and ATS in the DET-WAS series since 2016
• DETROIT’s Dan Campbell is on a 9-12 SU and 10-11 ATS skid vs. poor teams with winning percentages <=33%
• DETROIT’s Dan Campbell is on a 12-0 SU and ATS streak coming off an outright loss
• WASHINGTON is 21-37 ATS (36.2%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+8.5 vs DET)

LA RAMS at SAN FRANCISCO

• Underdogs are 10-4 SU and 12-2 ATS in the LAR-SF NFC West rivalry since 2019
• LA RAMS’ Matthew Stafford is 35-65 SU and 37-61 ATS vs. teams with winning records since 2011
• LA RAMS’ Sean McVay is just 10-15 SU and 7-16 ATS in its last 25 November games
• LA RAMS are 56-43 UNDER the total (56.6%) since 2020
• SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 27-16 UNDER the total as a single-digit underdog since 2017
• SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 46-31 OVER the total when his team is on normal rest (7 days) since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+4.5 vs LAR)

PITTSBURGH at LA CHARGERS

• The STEELERS have been solid versus the Chargers historically, going 13-6 SU and 14-5 ATS in meetings since 1992
• PITTSBURGH is 19-11 SU and 20-10 ATS vs. teams with better records since 2013
• PITTSBURGH’s Mike Tomlin is on 32-25 SU and 38-17 ATS run as a single-digit underdog
• LA CHARGERS are 38-52-1 ATS (42.2%) at home since 2014
• LA CHARGERS’ Jim Harbaugh owns a solid 33-11 SU and 29-13 ATS NFL mark as a favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2011
• PITTSBURGH is 105-74 UNDER the total (58.7%) since 2015
• PITTSBURGH’s Aaron Rodgers is 14-7 UNDER the total vs. teams with a better record since 2014
• LA CHARGERS are 65-35 UNDER the total when coming off an outright win since 2013
• LA CHARGERS are on 27-13 UNDER the total surge in Sunday games
• LA CHARGERS are on 16-5 UNDER the total streak when playing on normal rest (7 days)
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+3 at LAC)

PHILADELPHIA at GREEN BAY

• Favorites are 10-4 ATS in the PHI-GB series since the start of the 2004-05 season
• PHILADELPHIA is 22-9 OVER the total when coming off a home win since 2021
• PHILADELPHIA’s Jalen Hurts is 20-12 UNDER the total in his last 32 road games
• GREEN BAY is 23-17 ATS (57.5%) when coming off a SU loss since 2018
• GREEN BAY is 36-21 ATS (63.2%) at home since 2019
• GREEN BAY’s Matt Lafleur is 22-14-1 SU but 14-23 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY

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