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Home » Paul vs Woodley: What You Need To Know Before Betting

Paul vs Woodley: What You Need To Know Before Betting


Jake Paul vs Tyron Woodley happens Sunday, August 29th at 8 pm on Showtime PPV.  Already trending to be a top PPV of the year, the amount of attention this fight is getting has been matched at the betting window.  Below I will break down some important stats to help you enjoy your experience betting on the Paul vs Woodley fight.


All statistics shown below are brought to you by BetMGM Sportsbook.  You may see some variations in odds pricing with other sportsbooks.


Paul vs Woodley Betting Statistics.

Line movement

  • Fight result (2-way)
    • Jake Paul: opened -160, now -200
    • Tyron Woodley: opened +120, now +160

Betting percentages (2-way)

  • Jake Paul: 14.4% of tickets, 36.4% of handle
  • Tyron Woodley: 85.6% of tickets, 63.6% of handle

Most bet props

  • Tyron Woodley by KO/TKO/Technical Decision or DQ (+200)
  • Tyron Woodley on points (+1200)
  • Tyron Woodley in Round 1 (+1400)


What Do These Stats Mean?

Reading gambling lines can be confusing on its own so I understand if you have questions about what “handle” or “tickets” means.  To simply put it, the ticket percentage is the number of bets placed per side.  So if there were 100 bets made and Woodley has 85% of the tickets, that would mean 85 people bet on Tyron Woodley.  The handle is the percentage of money bet on that side.  To continue the previous example, if $100 was bet on this fight and Woodley has 63% of the handle, that means that 63% of that $100, or $63, was bet on Woodley.  These are some of the most important stats a bettor can read before placing their bets.

Woodley has 85.6% of the public betting him and of that 85.6%, they’ve bet 63.6% of the total amount bet on the fight.  This means the large majority of the public is betting on Tyron Woodley to win.  That also means that only 14.4% of the public bet Jake Paul.  A key number here is the amount of money that 14% of the public bet.  The handle is 36.4% for Jake Paul which is not the majority, yet the odds keep moving in Paul’s favor.  This puts Vegas in a vulnerable position to lose a lot of money if Jake Paul loses.  So why do they keep boosting the odds on Woodley?

Why Would Vegas Put Themselves In Position To Lose Big?

Similar to a mirage in the desert, odds that seem too good to be true are in fact, too good to be true. I believe this applies to the Paul vs Woodley fight.  The way Vegas makes money is by having roughly 50% of the action on both sides of the event and they profit off the difference.  In this fight, the public and money are so heavily on Woodley, that it makes no sense at all for Vegas to make the price better.  This is the gambler’s mirage.  Vegas is giving a price that is too good to be true on Woodley because they want to make as much money off this fight as they can.

So You’re Telling Me To Bet A Youtuber To Beat A 5-Time UFC Champion?

Yes, that is exactly what I am saying.  The Jake Paul Media team and Showtime have advertised this fight just as that; A Youtuber vs a UFC Legend.  Yes, Woodley is a former UFC Champion with highlight-reel performances over the likes of Darren Till, Robbie Lawler, and Josh Koscheck, but he also is currently on a 4 fight losing skid.  Worse yet, in those 4 performances, he has appeared frozen throughout the entire fight showing very little offence and having record low strike counts.  Woodley looks the part, but he has yet to show he still has that killer instinct.

Jake Paul on the other hand is 24 years old, 20lbs heavier, taller, and has a longer reach than Woodley.  He lacks experience in the ring, but this is a perfect matchup for him to gain it. He is fighting an opponent with very low output and a great reputation.  A perfect recipe to come out looking impressive no matter what.  I doubt Jake Paul actually has the power to knock Woodley out.  If Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns couldn’t do it, Jake Paul has zero chance. What I see happening is Jake Paul point fighting his way to a decision victory.

The Bet To Make

I think the sharpest bet to make is betting Jake Paul to win by decision at +1000 odds.  a $100 bet will payout $1,100.  You can check out our promotions section to find all of our best mobile betting promotions.

If you follow the pick, let me know on Twitter @EKBets.


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