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NL Wild Card Game Betting Insights


The NL East has an interesting matchup as the red-hot St. Louis Cardinals go to Los Angeles to face the Dodgers.  The Cardinals went 22-7 in September to turn around what appeared like a losing season.  The Dodgers somehow have ended up in the Wild Card Game even with 106 wins on the season.  With betting lines listing the Dodgers as the favorite to win the World Series, one would assume they would be both the betting favorite and the most bet.  The insights tell a different story, which I break down below.


The Insights.

• The Dodgers are the betting favorite at -225 on the moneyline.  They have 36% of the betting public backing them and betting 64% of the total money.

• The over/under was set at 7.5 points.  With 54% of the public on the over and betting 69% of the money, the over has moved from -105 to -110.

• The runline was set at -1.5 runs for the Dodgers at -105 odds.  65% of the public has bet 51% of the money on the Dodger and the line hasn’t moved.


What The Insights Mean:

The Moneyline

Seeing the Dodgers set as the -225 betting favorite is no surprise.  With 106 regular-season wins, the Dodgers got unlucky having the only other team with more wins than them in their division; The San Francisco Giants.  That is the only reason they are in the Wild Card Game.  The overall performance of the Dodgers this season is what sets their moneyline at the price it is.  I also find it interesting that of the 36% that bet the Dodgers, they bet 64% of the money.  The line not moving, to me, says the books have money evenly on each side based on price.

The Over/Under

7.5 is a tricky number when looking at an over/under.  Seeing the public is basically even on both sides and the money leaning the over, I am hesitant to bet on either side.  It appears that the books will win regardless of which side wins.

The Runline

Runlines will always be set at -1.5.  Normally the odds are higher value than -105 which slightly raises eyebrows but doesn’t tell me much.  This is another bet that is hard to pick a side on.  The numbers are showing the books will win regardless of the outcome.


What I am Betting:

There isn’t much value in it, but I am most confident on the LA Dodgers on the moneyline at -225.  The books win more with the Dodgers winning and I can’t imagine a hot streak like the one the Cardinals have been on lasts forever.  A month is a long hot streak on its own.


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