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Home » MLB Playoff Insights: 10/12/21
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The Division Series is well underway with the Red Sox already surpassing the Rays and more elimination games up today.  We have the White Sox hosting the Astros in Chicago, the Brewers playing the Braves in Atlanta, and the Giants going to LA to play the Dodgers.  If the Astros, Braves, and Giants win, the Division Series ends today.  I am writing this blog a tad bit late, so I won’t go into the stats in the Astros/White Sox game.  Instead, we’ll focus on the Brewers/Braves game at 5:15pm est and the Giants/Dodgers game at 9pm.

 

Brewers vs Braves

Moneyline

•54% of the public is on the Braves.

•78% of the money is on the Braves.

•The line moved from the Braves being a -145 favorite to a -140 favorite.

Total

•88% of the public has bet the under.

•77% of the money is on the under.

•the total is at 8.5 and has not moved.

Run Line

•73% of the public is on the Braves -1.5 run line.

•24% of the money is on the Braves -1.5 run line.

•The line opened at -1.5 run favorite for the Braves at +135 odds.  The line is now -1.5 run favorite at +140.

 

Giants vs Dodgers

Moneyline

•49% of the public is on the Dodgers.

•67% of the money is on the Dodgers.

•The line moved from the Dodgers being a -160 favorite to a -155 favorite.

Total

•59% of the public has bet the over.

•57% of the money is on the over.

•the total is at 7.5 and has moved to 8.

Run Line

•73% of the public is on the Dodgers -1.5 run line.

•68% of the money is on the Dodgers -1.5 run line.

•The line opened at -1.5 run favorite for the Dodgers (+135) and the odds have not moved.

 

The Insights

Brewers vs Braves

The line movement on the moneyline for the Braves, even with the majority of the public and money betting them, leads me to believe the books disagree with the public.  The public believes that the Braves will win this game and it seems the books thinks there will be a game 5.

There isn’t much to see on the over/under.  the Books haven’t moved the line at all so it seems they like what they see on both sides of the line.

The Run Line is having odds movement similar to the moneyline.  This, to me, only enforces that the books think the Brewers win today.

My Pick: Brewers moneyline +125.

Giants vs Dodgers

the line movement, similar to what’s happening in the 5pm game, is showing the public and the books disagreeing.  67% of the money is on the Dodgers yet the odds are dropping from -160 to -155.

The over/under has standard line movement.  The books set the line at 7.5 and have moved it up as people bet the over.

The Run Line has no movement.  The Dodgers are the heavier side with both the majority of the public and money on them.  The lack of movement here could be due to a small percentage of the total money bet on the event being on the run line.

My Pick: Giants moneyline +125.

 

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