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Home » MLB Championship Series Betting Insights 10/20

MLB Championship Series Betting Insights 10/20


Game 5 of the ALCS and Game 4 of the NLCS are tonight and I have the betting insights from the sportsbooks to help you win big tonight.  In the ALCS, we have a tied-up series as Houston stole won on the road in Fenway last night.  In the NLCS, the storyline quickly changed from “Braves to the World Series” to “Braves are donezo” as Cody Bellinger hit the go-ahead home run in game 3 to make the series score 2-1 Braves.  Will the Red Sox take back the series lead before heading back to Houston?  Will the Dodgers leave LA up 3-2 in the series?  Before we make our bets, lets look at the betting insights of where the public is at and how the books have adjusted.


The Betting Insights:

Astros vs Red Sox:

•on the money line, 54% of the public have wagered 61% of the money on the Red Sox.  The line opened at -115 and has moved to -120.

•81% of the public bet the over and wagered 90% of the money on the over.  There has been no line movement and the total is at 9.5 points.

•78% of the public bet the Red Sox on the -1.5 run line.  Of that 78% they wagered 74% of the money on the Red Sox.  The odds on the Red Sox -1.5 run line have moved from +155 to +150.


Braves vs Dodgers

•on the money line, 39% of the public have wagered 68% of the money on the Dodgers.  The line has moved from -200 to -225.

•78% of the public bet the over.  Of that 78% they have wagered 90% of the money bet on the total.  there has been no line movement and the total is 8 points.

•66% of the public bet the Dodgers on the -1.5 run line.  Of that 66% they wagered 66% of the total money on the total.  The run line odds have gone from +100 to -105.


What They Mean

Astros vs Red Sox

Even after last night’s slip-up, the public is confident that the Red Sox will regain the lead in the series by winning tonight’s game.  The line moving up to -130 in some books is a decent-sized adjustment.  The value on the Red Sox may be gone after the line correction.  As for the over, it’s concerning to see that large of the public and the money on one side and the line has not moved at all.  I would avoid the over because of that.  The run line money movement, in comparison to the money line, makes sense.  When the value is gone on the money line, the run line is the best way to gain back that value.

My Bet: I am going to bet the Astros on the money line at +105 odds.  the value has quickly drained from the Red Sox side and I do think this game is a toss-up.  Especially after last night seeing the Red Sox hot streak seem to disappear.


Braves vs Dodgers

The betting minority have wagered over 2/3rds of the total money bet on the Dodgers and the line is respecting that line movement.  Similar to the Red Sox, I feel all the value on the Dodgers line has disappeared.  I also have similar thoughts about the over as I do in the Red Sox/Astros game.  The majority of the money on the over with no line movement leads me to believe the under will hit.  Even the run line in the Dodgers/Braves game has lost its value.  Betting a run line on a favorite at favorited odds is not the smartest move in the playoffs.

My Bet: I am betting the Braves on the moneyline +180.  The Dodgers lines have absolutely no value left in them and I have a feeling this game is a lot closer than the odds lead on to be.


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