Every year, the United States collectively gambles roughly around 100 Billion dollars on The NFL. You have the fans who bet on their favorite team, Pessimists like myself who bet against their team (The NY Jets), and every other type of bettor imaginable. It easily is the biggest gambling market in America and with the 2021 NFL Season rapidly approaching, there are some tips betting every sports bettor should know about before wagering Thursday night. The three rules I like to follow when betting on the NFL are prime time 1st half under, home team underdogs in divisional matchups, and home team underdogs that play in a dome. Over the last several years, I have had success following these 3 rules.
Primetime 1st Half Unders
This rule, or system, has won me a good bit of cash over the years. The logic is that in the first half, the offense tends to be slower. One team may have success while the other hasn’t. Most of the time it’s both offenses struggling as they start to learn the defensive schemes played against them. The key to making sure you have success in this system is not taking an under below 20.5 points. Primetime games for some reason consistently end with scores like 10-10, 10-7, 13-7, and 14-6. Anything above 20.5 points is an immediate play. Even if it’s the Kansas City Chiefs.
Home Team Underdogs In Divisional Matchups
Each team plays 2 games against each team in their division. These are the only teams an NFL team is guaranteed to see each year. This leads to significantly more parody in the games than the media narratives tend to dictate. The familiarity with each divisional matchup makes tips betting the underdog, especially with a home-field advantage, profitable over time. Look for teams like Pittsburgh to upset Cleveland this year or Atlanta giving their divisional matchups an issue at home.
Home Team Underdogs That Play In A Dome
Colts, Saints, Vikings, Falcons, and Lions. These are the teams that we’ll focus on for this rule. The logic being that teams that play inside, always cover. It is a home-field advantage that is different than any other stadium. Kickers do not have to account for wind and that always ends up being a major factor in the closing moments of a game. You’ll see overcompensation just because it’s the first kick that kicker has had where the wind wasn’t a factor. Also, more often than not, you’ll get a point spread above 7 points. Any point spread that is larger than the points earned from a touchdown can lead to back door covers. This is where a lot of these dome teams make people money. The last-minute drive to bring a game within the set point spread is known as a back door cover. Matt Stafford won the hearts of gamblers all across the country for his ability to backdoor cover on games his team should have been blown out.
Those are my 3 go-to rules to stick to throughout the NFL season. Throughout the season I will recap these rules and see how much money they have won or lost.