Kelly Criterion

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The Kelly Criterion is a popular mathematical formula used in sports betting to help bettors determine the optimal amount to wager on a particular outcome. The formula takes into account the probability of the bet winning, as well as the odds offered by the sportsbook. The Kelly Criterion aims to maximize the expected value of a bet by suggesting a percentage of your bankroll to risk on the bet.

To use the Kelly Criterion, you first need to calculate the probability of the bet winning. This can be based on factors such as statistics, recent form, and expert analysis. Once you have calculated the probability, you then need to compare it to the odds offered by the sportsbook. If the probability is higher than the odds, then the bet is considered a value bet.

The Kelly Criterion then suggests a percentage of your bankroll to risk on the bet. This percentage is calculated by subtracting the probability of losing from the probability of winning, then dividing by the odds offered. The resulting percentage is then multiplied by the bankroll to determine the amount to wager.

It’s important to note that while the Kelly Criterion can be a useful tool in sports betting, it’s not a guarantee of success. It’s also important to practice responsible bankroll management and to only risk what you can afford to lose.

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Eamonn KeenanEamonn Keenan
Eamonn Keenan, with a Digital Arts Degree from the University of Tampa, brings over a decade of sports betting experience to his role as Creative Director at Starting with Betting Hero in the Fall of 2020, Eamonn has been deeply involved in the industry, assisting customers with major sportsbook and casino operators like BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and others. A self-proclaimed sports fanatic, he has a keen interest in professional hockey, MMA, NFL, NCAAB, NCAAF, and MLB. Eamonn enjoys researching teams and players to predict game outcomes, highlighting his passion for sports betting.