How Do You Calculate Expected Value in Sports Betting?

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Expected value (EV) is a statistical concept that is commonly used in sports betting to help determine the potential profitability of a bet. To calculate the expected value of a bet, you need to multiply the probability of winning by the potential payout, and then subtract the probability of losing multiplied by the amount you stand to lose.

Here is an example:

Let’s say you are betting on a football game, and you believe that the probability of your team winning is 60%. The sportsbook is offering odds of +150, meaning you stand to win $150 for every $100 you bet.

To calculate the expected value, you would use the following formula:

EV = (Probability of Winning x Potential Payout) – (Probability of Losing x Amount at Risk)

EV = (0.6 x $150) – (0.4 x $100)

EV = $90 – $40

EV = $50

This means that on average, you can expect to make a profit of $50 for every $100 you bet on this particular game.

Calculating expected value can be a useful tool in sports betting, as it can help you identify bets that offer good value and avoid those that do not. However, it is important to remember that no bet is a guarantee, and there is always a risk of losing money in sports betting. It is essential to manage your bankroll effectively and bet responsibly.

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Eamonn KeenanEamonn Keenan
Eamonn Keenan, with a Digital Arts Degree from the University of Tampa, brings over a decade of sports betting experience to his role as Creative Director at Starting with Betting Hero in the Fall of 2020, Eamonn has been deeply involved in the industry, assisting customers with major sportsbook and casino operators like BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and others. A self-proclaimed sports fanatic, he has a keen interest in professional hockey, MMA, NFL, NCAAB, NCAAF, and MLB. Eamonn enjoys researching teams and players to predict game outcomes, highlighting his passion for sports betting.