Tonight we have an NFC matchup on ESPN as the Philadelphia Eagles fly to Dallas to face the Cowboys at 8:15 pm EDT. Both teams are 1-1 this season yet have two entirely different narratives in the media. The Eagles are in crisis while the Cowboys are finally putting it all together. While most bettors seem to have the same perspective, Vegas appears to think otherwise.
The Cowboys are the betting favorite for tonight’s matchup. Opening at a -3.5 favorite, the Cowboys have 74% of the public backing them with 79% of the total money wagered. On the Moneyline, the Cowboys opened as a -200 favorite and received 42% of the public’s bets. Of that 42% of bettors, they have bet 57% of the total money on the Cowboys.
The spread has since moved to -3 and the Moneyline dropped to -185.
This means only 26% of the public has bet the Eagles on the points and only bet 21% of the total money wagered yet the line moved in the Eagles’ favor. Typically, Vegas needs to keep the money as close to even on both sides to profit. The Cowboys holding 79% of the total money wagered leaves Vegas vulnerable to a hefty loss if the Cowboys cover.
Remember on Thursday with the Panthers/Texans game, Vegas was in a similar situation. On the spread, the Panthers had 72% of the money moving the line from -4.5 to -8. The over/under had 71% of the total money yet moved from 43.5 to 43. That night, the Panthers covered the -8 spread and 33 points were scored in that game. The same reverse line movement that appeared Thursday is happening again tonight.
What I am Betting
After seeing the data of how the public is betting and Vegas’ response to it, I am betting the Eagles +3.5 at -115 odds with WynnBET. They are one of the few books that are still offering the +3.5 spread below -120 odds. They also offer a risk-free first bet up to $1,000. Having that kind of insurance on an NFC East divisional matchup is never a bad thing! You can access the promotion below by clicking the “play now” button, creating and funding an account, then placing your first bet.
WynnBET – Risk-Free 1st Bet up to $1,000
Kickoff is at 8:15 pm EDT on ESPN so make sure to get your bets in before then!