Week 4 concludes with a matchup of streaking teams as the Las Vegas head west to the City of Angels to play the Los Angeles Chargers. The Raiders (3-0) look to continue their dominance against a LA Chargers team riding a huge wave of momentum after beating the reigning champs last week. Let’s dive into their schedules so far, the betting stats, and what I am picking tonight.
The Betting Insights:
On The Spread:
The line opened at -3 making the Chargers the hometown favorite. Since opening, 64% of the public has bet 77% of the total money on the Chargers. The line has not moved since opening.
On The Over/Under:
Opening at 52.5 points, 71% of the public has bet 78% of the total money on the over. The line has since moved to 51 points.
On The Moneyline:
The Chargers opened as a -165 favorite on the moneyline. 25% of the public bet 63% of the money on the Chargers. There has been no line movement since opening.
What The Data Means:
The short explanation is that the public thinks the Chargers will win and the books seem to agree. The spread public percentage and the handle on the spread is interesting. With 77% of the total money bet on the Chargers, you would expect the line to rise at least a half-point to -3.5. The lack of line movement has me thinking that some serious bettors are betting on the underdog. Sportsbooks will move their odds based on where the money lands but also who is betting on what side. If the sportsbook has noticed a customer that is a consistent winner, they will at times adjust lines after the user has bet. I think something along those lines may be the case with the spread.
As for the over/under, yet again we have reverse line movement on the total. Everyone is betting the over and putting their money where their mouth is, yet the books have lowered the total. The data is telling me that the sportsbooks plan on cashing out a winner on the under by having as much action on the over as possible.
What I Bet:
If anyone has read these blogs consistently they should know by now that I love the reverse line movement. Because of this, I am betting the under 51 points at -110. I also have sprinkled a smaller bet on the Raiders +3. If you want to join in on the fun, You can win $200 in Free Bets by placing a $10 wager on any NFL Team moneyline. Once your team scores a touchdown, you’ll win $200 in Free Bets. The payout of the free bets happens once the game is finalized. To access this promotion, click the play now button below!